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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."